Badges Dip
Rookies and first moments started to soar last week with the badges announcement, but now they've dipped back down in price. Why?
Badges have finally arrived, only causing moments with them to plummet in price.
Why?
When badges were first announced on March 24th, immediately, any moment that would receive a badge saw a price increase - but this was before badges were even on the moments on Top Shot. Then, when badges were fully up and running on Top Shot, prices nosedived with people looking to flip all their moments for a quick buck. Now, most of these moments have dropped below the floor price when they didn’t even have badges, for example, Sam Merrill, Josh Green, and Tyrese Haliburton, to list a few.
What’s more interesting to me is that Season 1 moments have also seen a dip in prices, even though Season 1’s are no longer in packs. With the Cool Cat’s three drop last week, it can make sense how Season 2 moments have dropped with more hitting the market: but with Season 1’s dropping, the only explanation is that with badges, more people listed their moments on the marketplace, expecting prices to increase, but with people constantly undercutting each other, the opposite has happened.
Surprisingly, only one Season 1 rookie moment saw an increase in March, with this player being Kevin Porter Jr, increasing his median price by a mere 1.3%, while the rest of the Season 1 rookie moments median prices dropped a whopping 45%, per @SteefCrypto on Twitter.
One of the reasons I highlighted above that moments with badges are dropping is that the market was flooded with them after they released on Top Shot, and with more moments available on the market, a dip makes complete sense.
Another reason why moments with badges are dropping is that considering we’re only in Season 2 - there are plenty of moments that have badges due to how new Top Shot is but in the future, as more Seasons and Series progress in the NBA and Top Shot, badges will be much rarer as players’ careers progress. There will never be the first-moment badge for any of these players ever again on Top Shot, so it makes sense as time progresses that these moments will eventually see a boom in price as their careers advance.
Some of you might be wondering: what should I do with my moments, and how should I view the marketplace with this recent dip?
Here’s a look at the daily sales on Top Shot for March, per @EvaluateMarket.
As you can see, we’ve now hit the lowest volume and daily sales in over a month. One explanation for this which @Roham has touched on; many accounts have hit a standstill and don’t have much more cash left in their Dapper accounts to spend in the marketplace, causing a halt in sales.
To answer the question above, I’d advise holding on to your moments as the market is very volatile considering how new Top Shot is, and I’d especially hold Season 1 moments.
Most people forget that YOU control the market. Comparing one situation aside from Top Shot, is when people on Reddit came together and boosted the stocks for Gamestop and AMC, because they realized they had the power to do so. Now bringing it back to Top Shot, with Kevin Durant’s all-star moment gifted to accounts who completed the challenge, over 80% of listings are now at $69,420. Yes, these moments probably won’t sell, but it shows that nobody else controls the price for these moments besides you and the other people that hold that exact moment.
Another piece of advice I’ll give during this dip is: Buy the dip.
If you have funds in your dapper account or the ability to add more to your Dapper account, I would do so now. The market will inevitably see another boom similar to how it did on March 8th, and right now, we’re looking at the most dramatic drop in the Top Shot marketplace ever.
I recommend investing in players’ first moments, but I think the best bargain right now are their first NBA baskets, in particular, in Season 2. There is nothing as memorable as players first NBA points, and considering these players are so young (rookies), each player is barely scraping the surface of their potential, and most rookies on Top Shot have a great path ahead in their careers.
With Aaron Gordon getting traded, Chuma Okeke has stepped into the starting four spot, and the former first-rounder has stepped up. In his last four games, he’s averaging 18 points on 63% shooting from the field and 63% shooting from three. These percentages are an anomaly, but Okeke is putting on a show and is proving he has the skillset to be a key-piece to the Magic’s young core (Markelle Fultz, 22, and Jonathon Isaac, 23).
Another rookie to keep an eye on is the Timberwolves' second first-round pick, selected with the 28th pick in this past draft, Jaden McDaniels. Anthony Edwards, taken with the #1 pick, is stealing McDaniels' thunder, but McDaniels impact cannot go unnoticed.
This dip will unavoidably end, and it’s just a matter of time before prices go back up. We’re still in a buyers market, so don’t sell your moments unless you have to.
Also, it would be a lot cooler if the badges actually popped up on the moment clip instead of just sitting on the side, but that’s just my opinion.